Performance
Full track record across every strategy — nothing hidden.
Why this record lost money
analysed 2026-09-16 · 54 closed trades · 2026-04-07 to 2026-05-04
Paper trading, so no money moved. But a 55.6% win rate and a losing total is not a contradiction, and the reason is worth showing rather than hiding.
Average win
+0.76R
Average loss
-1.67R
Expectancy
-0.322R
per trade
Total
-17.38R
30 wins, 24 losses
Max drawdown
31.68R
trough 2026-04-19
The average winner was planned at 2.78R and collected 0.76R, which is 27% of what the setup was aiming for. The average loser gave back 1.67R. Losers ran close to full planned risk; winners did not run to full planned reward. That gap, not the hit rate, is the result.
How winning trades ended
How losing trades ended
Most winners do not end at their target. They end at a stop that has been moved above entry, collecting a fraction of an R, while a full loser pays close to the whole one. Only 4 of 54 trades reached take profit, and those averaged 2.48R — the targets were reachable when a trade was given room to reach them.
Every strategy, worst first
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| Strategy | Trades | Win rate | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals Multi-Setup | 4 | 25% | +0.65R | -4.69R | -3.352R | -13.41R |
| Exhaustion Fade | 1 | 0% | 0.00R | -11.28R | -11.280R | -11.28R |
| Four-Gate Confluence | 26 | 53.8% | +0.71R | -1.03R | -0.096R | -2.50R |
| Contrarian Inversion | 1 | 0% | 0.00R | -1.66R | -1.660R | -1.66R |
| Volatility Compression Breakout | 2 | 50% | +0.01R | -0.16R | -0.075R | -0.15R |
| Session Transition Reversion | 1 | 100% | +0.16R | 0.00R | 0.160R | +0.16R |
| Liquidation Wick Reversal | 3 | 66.7% | +0.53R | -0.20R | 0.283R | +0.85R |
| Swing Liquidity Sweep | 2 | 100% | +0.54R | 0.00R | 0.545R | +1.09R |
| Session Overlap Scalp | 12 | 58.3% | +0.30R | -0.08R | 0.143R | +1.72R |
| BOS Momentum Continuation | 1 | 100% | +3.11R | 0.00R | 3.110R | +3.11R |
| HTF Structure Swing | 1 | 100% | +4.69R | 0.00R | 4.690R | +4.69R |
Several strategies show one or two trades. Those totals are noise, not evidence, and are listed only because leaving them out would be cherry-picking. Generated by scripts/analyze-ledger.ts on 2026-09-16.